The Memo: Trump rolls the dice with blockade of Iran

President Trump is rolling the dice again in relation to Iran. 

His order for the Navy to block ships as they go to and from Iranian ports is pushing the conflict into a new cycle of escalation.

Trump is adamant he can use renewed pressure to force Tehran to make concessions that it has refused so far — including in the Saturday talks that broke without agreement in Islamabad, Pakistan.

The danger is that the tactic simply might not work — either because Iran refuses to capitulate in a war seen by its leaders as a battle for survival or because the economic costs for the United States and the wider world become too much to bear.

Some experts also worry that each side is overestimating its own strength and leverage. If that is true, it could spark a return to a full-blown state of war before the uneasy ceasefire is scheduled to expire next week.

Trump continues to evince optimism about American prospects in the conflict, despite its broad unpopularity with the public and its  — at best — checkered results so far. 

Iran has been battered militarily, but the leadership of the Islamic Republic looks to have a firm grip on two central issues. Neither its survival nor its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium appears imperiled for now.

Trump said Monday that Iran had “called this morning” and appeared to want to “work a deal.” Reuters, which reported those comments, noted it could not immediately verify his claim.

Meanwhile, the president also took to social media soon after noon EDT on Monday to contend that “34 Ships went through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, which is by far the highest number since this foolish closure began.”

There were some signs on the financial markets that traders were feeling some stirrings of optimism about the conflict coming to a........

© The Hill