The Memo: Trump rolls the dice with blockade of Iran

President Trump is rolling the dice again in relation to Iran. 

His order for the Navy to block ships as they go to and from Iranian ports is pushing the conflict into a new cycle of escalation.

Trump is adamant he can use renewed pressure to force Tehran to make concessions that it has refused so far — including in the Saturday talks that broke without agreement in Islamabad, Pakistan.

The danger is that the tactic simply might not work — either because Iran refuses to capitulate in a war seen by its leaders as a battle for survival or because the economic costs for the United States and the wider world become too much to bear.

Some experts also worry that each side is overestimating its own strength and leverage. If that is true, it could spark a return to a full-blown state of war before the uneasy ceasefire is scheduled to expire next week.

Trump continues to evince optimism about American prospects in the conflict, despite its broad unpopularity with the public and its  — at best — checkered results so far. 

Iran has been battered militarily, but the leadership of the Islamic Republic looks to have a firm grip on two central issues. Neither its survival nor its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium appears imperiled for now.

Trump said Monday that Iran had “called this morning” and appeared to want to “work a deal.” Reuters, which reported those comments, noted it could not immediately verify his claim.

Meanwhile, the president also took to social media soon after noon EDT on Monday to contend that “34 Ships went through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, which is by far the highest number since this foolish closure began.”

There were some signs on the financial markets that traders were feeling some stirrings of optimism about the conflict coming to a close.

The major U.S. stock indices rose significantly Monday, with the broad-based S&P 500 moving up by 1 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rising even more. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had a more modest, but still solid, rise of roughly six-tenths of 1 percent. 

However, it wasn’t all bright news. 

The price of Brent crude oil has risen roughly 3 percent for the day as of 5 p.m. EDT. The average price of a gallon of regular gas for Americans remains far higher than before the war. The latest national average is $4.12, according to AAA. It was a little less than $3 just before the U.S. and Israel launched their attack on Iran on Feb. 28.

Meanwhile, the Iranians — who believe they have won a strategic victory by surviving the initial assault and demonstrating their ability to keep oil prices elevated across the globe — do not sound in any hurry to compromise.

“Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called ‘blockade’, soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas,” Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, wrote on social media on Sunday. Qalibaf spearheaded the Iranian negotiating team in Islamabad. 

On Monday, a spokesperson for the Islamic Republic’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmail Baghaei, struck a similarly defiant note.

“Can an illegal ‘war of choice’ be won through a ‘revenge of choice’ against the global economy?!” he wrote. “Is it ever worthwhile to cut off one’s nose to spite one’s face?!” 

The seemingly massive perception gap between Washington and Tehran is fueling uncertainty.

Some experts think Trump is looking for any way to claim victory in a war that has been messy from its inception — regardless of the underlying reality.

“We’re back in this very uncertain place, wondering what credible coercive incentive Trump can come up with to get the Iranians to agree — if not to the material substance of a win, to the narrative of a ‘win’ that he wants to get to,” said Hussein Banai, an Iran expert and an associate professor of international studies at Indiana University Bloomington.

Banai added that the U.S. and the wider world are “still in the beginning of feeling the pain” from the opening stretch of hostilities, particularly in terms of energy supply. Reserves from the beginning of the conflict are being drained, which he predicted would soon make the detrimental effects of the conflict much more plainly apparent.

Allison McManus, managing director of national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, told this column that the U.S. had “seen only strategic failure” so far. She said the Iranians were in no mood to bend the knee to threats from the White House.

“Right now we are in a game of chicken,” McManus said. “Iran sees the continued downturn in the global economy. They recognize this is a very acute weakness for Trump, especially as we head into midterm season. This is their best point of leverage, their best way to hurt Trump.”

Of course, there are voices who are far more supportive of the president’s approach — and who are adamant that the sole problem is Iranian recalcitrance. 

“After 20 hours of negotiations in Pakistan, the Iranians were unwilling to move at all, particularly on nuclear weapons,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) wrote on social media.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), among the war’s staunchest backers, inveighed against the idea of a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment by Iran, viewing even that approach as too accommodating. 

“Would we agree to a moratorium for al Qaeda to enrich? No,” Graham wrote on the social platform X on Monday afternoon. “Again, no enrichment for Iran. They want a bomb and they cheat.”

Liberal critics, like McManus, contend Trump’s approach to the conflict has only strengthened Iran, leading to what she called a “strategic calamity” for the U.S.

But Trump acts as though there is still a win to be obtained. With the blockade, he is embarking on a risky new gambit to try to get there.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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