Why a Trump enemy could win a solid Republican Florida Senate seat

My mantra for November’s election night is to “expect the unexpected.”

Nationally, President Trump’s gloomy average job approval rating of 39 percent is linked to rising gas prices. Meanwhile, in his adopted home state of Florida, his approval is 43 percent, yet 70 percent of Floridians say they are “falling behind” the cost of living. These figures do not bode well for an easy Senate race, which is currently ranked “solid Republican” but likely to tighten.

In November 2024, Trump won Florida by a 13-point margin. Now, the appointed incumbent, Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), must appease the state’s irate electorate. Moody served as Florida’s attorney general until Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) tapped her in January 2025 to fill the Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio when named secretary of State.

Last July, Trump gifted the MAGA-loyal Moody an early endorsement to keep primary candidates at bay. As a Florida resident, I rarely hear Moody’s name in national, state or local news, but the president can always count on her support. Nonetheless, given anti-Trump fervor and a shocking recent poll, Moody’s fealty to Trump might be risky.

Enter Retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, running as a Democrat and ready to challenge Moody. Yesterday, a Politico Playbook headline read “The next Senate race to watch” after Vindman’s optimistic internal polling highlighted his strength and Moody’s weaknesses.

But first, the Aug. 18 Florida primary, where he is expected to defeat state Rep. Angie Nixon (D). With recent momentum from polling, Vindman has raised $8.1 million, compared with Moody’s $8.4........

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