Sometime in the near future, if all goes well, a billion or more video screens will show the image of a stainless-steel tower on the lunar surface, the Starship Human Landing System. Then, a close-up of the elevator will follow, bearing two space-suited astronauts from the crew compartment to the base of the lander.

The two astronauts will discuss the landscape before them and the condition of the lander, especially the landing legs.

Then will come the big moment. One of the astronauts will put boots on the lunar surface and will say something profound for the billions watching. For the first time since Apollo 17 in December 1972, humans from the planet Earth will walk on the moon. It will be the beginning of an era of lunar exploration.

But, as a recent piece in Ars Technica suggests, it will be the end of an era of Apollo-style voyages of exploration. It will be the last mission of the heavy lift, uber-expensive Space Launch System and (at least in its current form) the Orion spacecraft, flying in lunar orbit as the scene we just presented takes place.

The Artemis IV mission will be the first of what can best be called Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services. Just as travel to and from low Earth orbit has gone commercial, so will voyages to and from the moon.

According to Ars Technica, “Under the [Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services] model,........

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