Trump’s polling on Iran is a mixed bag — here’s how he can turn things around

The approval polling on Iran is all over the map. Not surprisingly, Democrats hate what President Trump is doing. But Democratic voters hate everything about Trump. If Trump cured cancer, approval for cancer would skyrocket.  

In fact, the political fallout on Iran will be the same as for any foreign adventure by any president. If it works, Trump will benefit. If it doesn’t, he’ll pay a steep price. 

At the time of writing, the RealClearPolitics average approval of military action in Iran is net-negative 4.7 points, but that’s nearly 8 points better than Trump’s overall RCP average approval. Among the most recent polls, Morning Consult has Trump 7 points better on Iran as opposed to his overall approval. The YouGov poll, a Trump-unfavorable poll, has the president 1 point better. RMG Research, a Trump-favorable poll, has Trump 7 points worse. 

What boosts Trump — and has not been reported hardly at all in the media — is widespread and long-standing antipathy for the murderous, theocratic Iranian regime. Recent polling has Iran right next to the least-liked country, North Korea. And this is nothing new. 

In the aftermath of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, YouGov found 78 percent of Americans considered Iran “unfriendly” or an “enemy” (58 percent said “enemy”), with a mere 4 percent calling Iran a “friend” or “ally.” That result was 3 points higher than Russia and 6 points higher than China. However, the intensity was higher, with Iran scoring 10 points higher than Russia as an “enemy” and 22 points higher than China. In addition, 59 percent of Americans considered Iran’s nuclear program an “immediate” or “somewhat serious threat,” including 54 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of Republicans. 

Harvard-Harris offers some confirmation in its January poll, where 76 percent of respondents considered stopping Iran’s nuclear program a top foreign policy goal. The Iranian nuclear program scored higher than any other threat, including Latin American narcotics trafficking and the Russia-Ukraine War. 

The removal of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro offers more hope for Trump, and a potential humiliation for his critics. Stung by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — both of which went on far, far too long for little benefit — and forgetting the neat, clean and successful removal of drug-dealing dictator Manuel Noriega in Panama, the American public was notably reticent about supporting military action in Venezuela. Even in the immediate aftermath, the YouGov poll had Americans opposed 45 percent against 40 percent in favor. 

Flash forward and there are no American troops in Venezuela, the country is taking halting steps toward normalization and has stopped providing aid to the authoritarian cabal in Cuba. And the public has responded. The Harvard-Harris February poll puts approval of removing Maduro at 59 percent against 41 percent disapprove. Even 38 percent of Democrats approve of this Trump action. Nearly the same level (58 percent) considers the action in the national interest, including 41 percent of Democrats. 

The two flies in the ointment for Trump, however, are inflation and his team’s continued unforgivably awful messaging.  

The public is paying for higher gas prices every day, and that rising cost of energy will ripple through the economy. And if there is one thing the public hates, it is inflation. For the past four years, inflation has been the No.1 issue, by far. 

But inflation has been Trump’s blind spot, essentially ignoring the issue in the 2024 election. Fortunately for him, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden and the Democrats had no answers themselves, and thus handed Trump the issue by default. Restoring an unimpeded flow of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf is vital for Trump. 

Lastly, there is Trump’s disastrous messaging strategy — or non-strategy, more accurately. This eminently fixable problem remains for a president who is better able to communicate directly to the public than any previous president. And yet what he is communicating is a mish-mash of stream-of-consciousness thinking, ping-ponging from one message to another. 

His inability to cogently justify the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei and his gang of thugs is particularly inexcusable. The Iranian regime is credibly accused of plotting to assassinate Trump by the Biden Justice Department. That alone makes Khamanei and his government a fair target. That Team Trump has not driven this point home is absolute messaging malpractice. 

Of course, Trump has fumbled justification for the war in general. Given how overwhelmingly Americans are concerned about Iran building a nuclear arsenal, Trump had (and has) a clear opening on the PR front. He could have offered the Iranians the end of sanctions and full normalization of relations in exchange for ending their nuclear program and funding Hezbollah and Hamas. Khamenei and his henchmen would never agree to such a thing, but the deal would look great from the perspective of the American public and would have allowed Trump to make the case that there are no other options but force. 

Trump needs to fix his administration’s atrocious messaging. But even more important, he has to win by ending Iran’s nuclear program and restoring the flow of energy from the Middle East. For all the messaging mistakes and questionable strategy, Trump has that one ace in the hole: if the U.S. military wins this war, he wins big. 

Keith Naughton, a longtime Republican political consultant, is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Republican political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania.    

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

More Opinions - Campaign News

GOP debate on SAVE America Act morphs into ‘circular firing squad’

Trump’s takeover of DC landmarks reaches legal apex

The Memo: Trump fumes as foreign leaders show new willingness to defy him

Jim Jordan reverses long-held position on spy powers, says he will back Trump ...

Costco CEO gives update on future of $1.50 hot dog and soda combo

Thune: Republicans will use SAVE Act in midterms if Democrats don’t get ‘on ...

Takeaways from Mullin’s testy DHS confirmation hearing

Trump weighs risky bet on Kharg Island in ‘game of chicken’ with Iran

House Democrat says there’s a ‘legitimate problem’ with US-NATO ...

Rand Paul confronts Markwayne Mullin over ‘snake’ remark; says he has ...

GOP tempers flare over how to pass SAVE America Act

Graham tears into European allies over Strait of Hormuz reluctance

Mark Cuban says Trump Rx saving people ‘a lot of money’ on some drugs

Kennedy’s vaccine agenda takes a major blow 

Judge skeptical over Trump ballroom project amid new bid to halt it 

FBI investigating Kent over allegedly leaking classified information 

Mullin agrees to meet with committee behind closed doors after dustup over ...

House Democrats open investigation into Lewandowski

The Hill Podcasts – Morning Report

© The Hill