Could we see a ‘super El Nino’ this year? What to know

(NEXSTAR) – A renowned research and modeling organization’s most recent forecast shows the planet could see a strong or “super” El Nino this year.

El Nino is a cyclical and natural warming of patches of the equatorial Pacific that then alters the world’s weather patterns. The phenomenon is dubbed a super El Nino when the temperature rises at least 2.0°C above normal.

La Nina is marked by cooler than average waters. Both shift precipitation and temperature patterns, but in different ways. El Ninos tend to increase global temperatures and La Ninas depress the long-term rise. La Ninas tend to cause more damage in the United States because of increased hurricane activity and drought, studies have shown.

While we are currently in a La Nina phase, recent models from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest a 98% chance of a moderate El Nino event by August, with an 80% chance of a strong event and a 22% chance of a super event.

“All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event,” according to climate scientist Daniel Swain. “… This is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-27.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its own outlook Monday, but notes that this time of year the models are notoriously uncertain when it comes to the late summer and beyond. NOAA expects the current La Nina phase to wane within the next several months and enter a neutral phase (a 60% chance from February to April) with the “possibility of a transition to El Nino” after July.

What would change with El Nino

Any effects of a potential El Nino are pattern are still months away, but, if the ECMWF models correctly predict a super El Nino this fall we may see hotter, drier winters in the northern US and Canada, along with increased rain and flooding across the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

During La Nina, warm water sticks to a deeper depth, resulting in a cooler surface. And that reduces how much energy goes out into space, said study co-author Yu Kosaka, a climate scientist at the University of Tokyo.

(Credit: Climate.gov)

(Credit: Climate.gov)

“When there is a transition from La Nina to El Nino, it’s like the lid is popped off,” releasing the heat, explained former NOAA meteorologist Tom Di Liberto, who’s now with Climate Central.

El Nino could bring some relief to those living in parts of the U.S. Southeast as the pattern tends to suppress vertical wind shear, stabilizing the atmosphere and potentially lowering the number of hurricanes.

“As we get closer to the start of hurricane season, confidence is growing that this might be the quietest season since 2015, unless something very unusual happens,” Andy Hazelton, associate scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS, posted on X. “Of course, we could see an impactful storm somewhere (it only takes one), but this setup doesn’t leave much leeway for the Atlantic to have a lot of action.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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