President Trump is seeing warning signs emerge from independent voters as his approval rating weakens with the key voting bloc.

Trump’s net approval among unaffiliated voters reached its lowest level of his second term on Tuesday, according to an aggregate from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), with his disapproval rating surpassing 60 percent for the first time since he took office. This has accompanied a wider decline in his overall approval rating throughout June.

The shifts among independents could be linked in particular to disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy, observers say. And they present an opportunity for Democrats as they struggle to rebuild their coalition heading into 2026 and beyond.

“Right now, the independents are the moving factor,” said Scott Tranter, the director of data science for DDHQ. “He’s holding his base, and he’s staying steady not liked by Democrats, and so that’s kind of why you see it.”

A significant improvement among independents compared to the 2020 race was one key part of Trump’s victory in last year’s election. While he and former Vice President Kamala Harris tied in this group, according to a report released Thursday from Pew Research Center, that was a net 9-point shift toward him compared to four years earlier.

Trump’s approval rating has been relatively steady among Democrats and Republicans, with his numbers mostly staying in the mid-to-low teens for the former and the 80s for the latter. But the percentage of independents approving of his performance has fluctuated notably more.

Tranter noted the movement is still relatively small compared to what shifts occurred historically, and independents only account for a small percentage of voters.

“A 3-to-4 point movement among his base is worth roughly the movement we saw in the independents in terms of vote........

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