For more than three years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has used nuclear threats as his go-to weapon against Western support for Ukraine. Battlefield setbacks? Cue the warnings about "red lines" and World War III.

And it worked. The Biden administration's careful, incremental approach to military aid was partly shaped by fear of crossing Putin's threshold.

But things have changed. Putin's nuclear theater has not just failed to intimidate President Trump — it has backfired so badly that the Kremlin had to scramble and walk back its own threats. In fact, this may be the moment Putin's nuclear blackmail finally hit its expiration date.

The pattern has been consistent since 2022. When Ukrainian forces routed Russian troops in Kharkiv and Kherson that fall, Moscow's nuclear saber-rattling was so alarming that CIA Director Bill Burns later revealed there was "genuine risk" of tactical nuclear use. Each time the West considered supplying advanced weapons, Russia issued dire warnings, which the Biden administration took seriously.

Trump initially fell for the same playbook. For nine months, Putin convinced him that Russia's victory was inevitable, while stringing him along in his peace negotiations theater. Vice President JD Vance explicitly warned against triggering World War III. Trump delayed major sanctions, genuinely believing restraint would bring peace.

But by October, the illusion had worn thin. A phone call with Putin on Oct. 16 ended with Trump announcing plans for a Budapest summit to explore a settlement. Days later, after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov delivered the same hardline ultimatum to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump pulled the plug. Days later, frustrated and determined to compel Putin to negotiate seriously, Trump imposed his first major sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft........

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