War-weary Russia is falling apart

It is becoming increasingly difficult for Russians — both Russia’s elites and ordinary citizens — to ignore the growing disaster that has been created by more than four years of Vladimir Putin’s war of choice against Ukraine. 

Russians understand well that, in exchange for decidedly meager gains, the conflict has resulted in catastrophic strategic setbacks: an expanded and better-resourced NATO; more than a million casualties; the loss of energy market dominance in Europe (and the political influence that came with it); the exodus of up to 1 million of the country’s most capable young citizens; the destruction of the Russian economy; and much more.

To be sure, most have remained quiet out of a fully justified fear of Putin’s instruments of repression. But that is changing. Growing numbers of Russians are now publicly speaking out against the war, and even against Putin himself. And many are doing so without being killed or sent to jail.

In Russia’s rigidly controlled authoritarian system, this state of affairs is only possible because elements of Russia’s powerful security services permit it. That they increasingly do should be a major warning sign for Putin.

Could this growing dissent finally lead to the end of Putin’s rule and, along with it, the war? Is there a tipping point? 

Perhaps it will be the increasing effectiveness of Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries, of which there have been more........

© The Hill