A government shutdown starting on Wednesday is looking probable as Democrats in Congress push Republicans on funding, health care, and President Trump’s reshaping of the federal government.

Unless Republicans and Democrats in Congress come to an agreement and pass a funding measure by 11:59 p.m. on Tuesday, October will kick off with the first government shutdown in nearly seven years.

It would affect every agency, but many “essential” government functions and payments would continue. The exact details of what will be open and closed can vary from previous shutdowns, however, and updated agency contingency plans have not been made public.

“The most important variable in assessing the potential economic impact and the impact felt by voters across the country is dependent on the length of a shutdown,” said Rachel Snyderman, managing director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “The risks and the impacts associated with shutdowns exponentially increase as their duration increases.”

“If the government does shut down next week, and Congress finds itself coming to the negotiating table very quickly, and we experience a lapse in appropriations in a few days, those impacts will be much less severe than if the negotiation takes two weeks,” Snyderman said.

Here is what we know and expect if the government shuts down on Oct. 1.

Which benefits still get paid?

Many direct payments like Social Security benefits and veterans disability and retirement benefits will still be paid as usual. Medicare and Medicaid benefits would also continue.

Those programs and benefits are funded through what is known as mandatory government spending, which does not rely on Congress acting to fund them every year.

However, there could be delays in customer service and administration, due to furloughs that could affect support staff.

Food assistance payments through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as “food stamps,” would continue initially, but they, as well as the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program, could be at risk in an extended shutdown.

“This is where the dependency on the duration of a shutdown has come into play,” Snyderman said. “These programs sometimes have balances that they are able to roll over every year, which can sustain some services for a matter of days, weeks or months. It is dependent on those balances.”

RealClearPolitics reported Friday that an unnamed senior Trump administration said........

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