Democrats still have the edge heading into the Midterms

Midterms are just a few months away, and the political environment is increasingly breaking in Democrats’ favor. 

Historical precedent already suggested midterms would be challenging for Republicans, as is typical for the party in power. However, declining approval for President Trump, rising voter frustration with the direction of the country, and early signs of Democratic energy in special and off-year elections — a fact we’ve previously noted  — have created real momentum for Democrats. Now there is the realistic possibility that both the House and Senate are in play. 

The biggest driver is straightforward: Trump has become a political liability. Americans have grown increasingly dissatisfied with his presidency, particularly amid growing discontent over the war in Iran and its impact on energy costs.

Indeed, the RealClearPolitics’ aggregator shows just 41 percent of Americans approve of President Trump’s job thus far, while 57 percent disapprove. Individual polls paint an even bleaker picture for Trump. A recent CNN survey shows that 38 percent of voters give Trump a passing mark on foreign affairs, while 62 percent do not. RealClear’s generic congressional ballot test tracker also shows Democrats with a 6-point lead, 48 percent to 42 percent. 

These numbers do not guarantee a Democratic wave, but they do show a clear deterioration in the Republican political standing. Likewise, several general election races are beginning to shift in the Democrats’ favor, particularly in the Senate.  

In Maine, Emerson polling shows Democrat Graham Platner leading incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) by 7 points. In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is leading Republican Michael Whatley (R) by 8 points, according to polling from the Carolina Journal. 

Finally, in Texas, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) both trail state Rep. James Talarico (D) by 2 and 1 points, respectively, according to Politico. Even considering that Texas is a statistical tie, the fact that Talarico is this competitive is unmistakable evidence of Republican headwinds.

Prediction markets are picking up on this shift too. Polymarket now gives Democrats a slight edge to retake the Senate (51 percent to 49), a notable change from last fall, when Republicans had a 75 percent chance to keep it.

It would be a mistake for Democrats to confuse momentum with strength. Their party image remains badly damaged. Its favorability remains deeply underwater, with just 30 percent of Americans having a favorable view, according to a recent NBC News survey. Further, RealClearPolitics shows Democrats with a net negative 20-point favorability rating, 5 points lower than Republicans’ and 6 points lower than even Trump.

Many voters still do not see Democrats as an attractive governing alternative. While midterms tend to be referenda on the party in power, Democrats will need to persuade voters not simply that Trump and Republicans have failed, but that Democrats offer something credible in response.

There are also real structural limits to how large a Democratic victory can be. As we have previously noted, Cook Political Report identified 75 competitive House districts eight years ago. That has fallen to less than 20 ahead of this year’s midterms. 

That makes it harder for Democratic momentum to translate into a big 2018-style wave, even in a favorable national environment. Moreover, it’s possible that by November, the impact of the war in Iran will have subsided and energy prices will have stabilized, easing some of the pressures currently on Republicans.  

Democrats also continue to face vulnerabilities on cultural issues, particularly where progressive activists are out of step with the electorate. Recently, the Senate took up a bill to bar transgender athletes from participating in women’s sports, every Democratic senator who was present voted against it. That puts Democrats at odds with the 61 percent of Americans who oppose allowing student athletes to play on teams that match their gender identity rather than biological sex.

However, the overall picture is plainly better for Democrats than for Republicans. Voters have soured on Trump’s handling of the economy, with Democrats now having a 3-point lead in which party voters most trust to handle it, per Civiqs. 

Similarly, there is deep discontent with the state of the country. Six in 10 voters say the country is on the wrong track, versus 36 percent who feel it’s on the right track, per Quantus Insights. And some of the key demographic groups that moved sharply right in 2024, including Hispanic voters and independents, appear to be moving back toward Democrats. 

Ultimately, these trends suggest that control of the House is highly likely to switch, and the Senate is now truly competitive. That does not mean Democrats are headed for a repeat of 2018. Their brand is weaker, the map is narrower, and Trump remains a uniquely resilient political figure.

While Democrats have an opening, they will need to find a way to convince voters that they have more to offer than “we’re not Trump” to turn their momentum into victories.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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