Both parties are struggling with midterm messaging 

Conventional wisdom says the president’s party loses seats or even control of one or both houses of Congress in midterm elections. But eight months out is a long way off to be spouting predictive political wisdom, especially in an era of rapidly shifting conventions.

The fact that neither party is relying on the prognosticators is a sign that outcomes are still very much up in the air, and neither has a clear idea of what messages to send to the electorate to gain or maintain power in Congress.

Although midterms are said to be a referendum on the incumbent president, especially in a president’s second term — the so-called “six-year itch” — in reality, they are just as much reflections of each party’s conduct and popular approval in Congress.

Politicos and journalists are good at shorthand and prefer to reduce their characterizations of midterms as public performance ratings of a president. However, each race for the House and Senate presents a different case depending on varying conditions and circumstances in 50 states and 435 congressional districts.

It is easy to generalize and note that since World War II, in midterm elections, the president’s party has lost on average 26 seats in the House and four in the Senate. Since the direct popular election of senators began with ratification of the 17th Amendment in 1913, the president’s party has only gained seats in the House or Senate in eight of those 27 midterms under presidents Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton,........

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