It has long been evident that President Trump believed Russian President Vladimir Putin could be persuaded to settle for less than the total conquest of Ukraine — specifically, for control over the Donbas region in the east — and that this would somehow be a reasonable “deal.” From the moment Russia invaded in 2022, many analysts warned that Putin’s ambitions extended well beyond those two provinces. Trump’s 2024 election victory set up a test.

Now, more than three years into the war and seven months since his return to the White House, Trump seems to believe that moment has arrived. His planned Aug. 15 meeting with Putin in Alaska suggests that the Russian leader may finally be ready to sign on to such an arrangement.

The outlines of a deal are familiar: Russia retains roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory in exchange for a ceasefire and some form of security arrangement that halts the war.

It is not yet clear if Putin would actually agree, and if agreement might not be a trick. But no less an obstacle may be Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Over the weekend, a day after the Alaska meeting was announced, Zelensky reiterated that “Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier.” At the same time, he left the door open to “real decisions” for peace — but only, he emphasized, with Ukraine at the table.

Trump and Putin plan to meet without Zelensky. There is a game of great powers with spheres of influences and vassal states that can be bullied.

Trump........

© The Hill