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Where to look for clues on election night 

11 1
04.11.2025

It’s not that I don’t care about New York City politics. I really do. It’s in the same way that I’m interested in the politics of Britain or Canada or Japan. What happens in these places is important, and I want good things for the people who are so closely connected to the United States. And maybe there are even some faint lessons for what’s happening in American politics.

So while I’ll definitely be tuned in to the story of what’s going on in New York tonight, my focus will mostly be elsewhere, even as I am broadcasting from the city itself.

What I really want to know is how voters are feeling one year into MAGA 2.0 and what the trend line is looking like for the midterm elections a year from now. With that in mind, here are two places to watch for clues this evening.

Virginia: South by Southwest

The most obvious storyline in Virginia is about the possibility of a split ticket between Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger and her party’s candidate for state attorney general, Jay Jones. And certainly if Spanberger wins decisively, as polls suggest she will, and Jones loses to incumbent state Attorney General Jason Miyares, it will tell us about the willingness of voters to still split their tickets in this very partisan era. But we saw quite a bit of that in 2020 and

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