Democrats cautiously optimistic after Trump backs Paxton in Texas Senate runoff

Democrats are feeling anxious but hopeful about their chances of winning a Senate seat in Texas following President Trump’s decision to back state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), who is seen as a weaker general election candidate than Sen. John Cornyn (R). 

While Texas has long been a great white whale for the party, Democrats think they have a uniquely strong nominee in James Talarico and that Trump’s boost of Paxton could leave them with a vulnerable opponent. 

“Making an endorsement here after early voting has already started is going to make half of the Republicans in Texas angry, and if they’re already disposed to not want to support Ken Paxton … I think you’re going to see that at the election in November,” said Jon Mark Hogg, who co-founded the 134 PAC, a political group aimed at organizing and supporting rural Democratic parties in the state. 

“I’m not saying that they’ll vote for Mr. Talarico, but they may stay home,” Hogg said, calling it “as good as a vote for James Talarico.” 

Trump delivered an unlikely but welcome gift to Democrats by endorsing the embattled top prosecutor in Texas for Cornyn’s seat after months of teasing a potential announcement. Early voting began Monday, meaning some voters already cast their ballots when Trump declared his backing.

Cornyn has said he’ll stay in the race and still retains the support of top Senate GOP leadership. 

The nasty primary has illustrated a stark divide among Republicans in Texas, with the party establishment throwing its weight behind Cornyn and MAGA grassroots energizing around Paxton. Democrats hope to capitalize on this split, which has raised questions about whether GOP voters will be able to unite around their eventual nominee in November.

“With Cornyn rolling out every bad thing Paxton has ever done, that’s going to be fresh in everybody’s memory, and Democrats, of course, will be able to use all that ammo to go up against Paxton, so it’s kind of a win-win,” said Texas-based Democratic strategist Joel Montfort, adding that he sees the messy contest as a “a great advantage going into November.”  

Democrats in Texas have long considered Cornyn a stronger candidate than Paxton, who’s been dogged by scandal, including an impeachment in the Texas House before he was acquitted in the Texas Senate on corruption charges in 2023. 

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll last month found Talarico up 7 and 8 points over Cornyn and Paxton, respectively. Another April poll, from Texas Southern University, showed Cornyn leading Talarico with 45 percent support to the Democrat’s 44 percent, while Paxton was tied with Talarico at 45 percent support. 

“Assuming it’s Paxton-Talarico, I mean, it’s just going to be a bloodbath,” said Texas GOP strategist Vinny Minchillo, pointing to the bitter GOP primary as a sign of more intensity to come.  

“Both sides will spend a lot, a lot of money tearing the other side down,” he said, though he predicted that either Republican would still be heavily favored in the red stronghold. “So we’ll see where we wind up in the fall.” 

The Texas GOP race has already become the most expensive primary — and priciest primary runoff — on record, according to data analyzed by........

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