Israel just executed the most far-reaching decapitation strike in the history of Iran. Within hours, targeted airstrikes had eliminated Iran’s top military planners — General Mohammad Bagheri, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and General Ali Rashid. Simultaneously, missile development facilities and key military coordination nodes were targeted, severing some of Iran’s communication links with proxy networks in Syria and Iraq.

And yet the man at the apex of the system, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was not targeted. To some observers, this omission may seem inexplicable. But martyring Khamenei would have produced explosive consequences far beyond the battlefield.

Under Iran’s constitution, the death of the Supreme Leader triggers an emergency succession process managed by the Assembly of Experts. Since the March 2024 elections, this body has been dominated by clerics aligned with the hardline factions.

Their candidate would likely be Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s son and behind-the-scenes enforcer. But Mojtaba faces a problem: He lacks the religious credentials necessary for the role. He has never issued a formal legal opinion, never taught in the traditional seminaries of Qom or Najaf and has never been accepted as a senior clerical authority.

In Shi’a Islam, legitimacy must be earned through decades of scholarship and peer recognition — it is not inherited as with a monarchy.

Had Israel killed Khamenei, this would likely have fast-tracked and legitimized Mojtaba’s rise. Absent that, it would........

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