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Average tax refund up nearly 11 percent so far this filing season

(NewsNation) — The average tax refund is up 10.9% compared with the same period a year ago, according to early filing data from the IRS.

Through Feb. 6, the average refund has reached $2,290 versus $2,065 at the same point in 2025.

The average is expected to rise in the weeks ahead since the current figures do not include millions of Earned Income Tax Credit and Additional Child Tax Credit refunds, the IRS said.

Tax cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed by President Donald Trump, are projected to boost refunds for millions of taxpayers this year. The increase could be as much as $1,000 per filer, according to an analysis cited by the Republican-led House Ways and Means Committee.

So far, the average refund is up $225 from the same period last year, though that gap could widen as more returns are processed.

Early-season data can be “deceiving,” the Bipartisan Policy Center noted in a January brief, citing recent filing seasons in which refunds started lower before rising later in the process.

The 2026 tax filing season opened Jan. 26, and the IRS has received about 22.3 million tax returns through Feb. 6. That’s down 5% from a year earlier but represents just 14% of the 164 million returns the agency expects this year.

Last year, the average refund was $3,167, and about 63% of taxpayers received one. The IRS says most electronic filers should receive their refund within 21 days.

More than 7.4 million refunds had been issued as of Feb. 6, down 8.1% from the 8.1 million at this point last year.

The federal tax filing deadline is April 15.

Average tax refund expected to increase

It’s not uncommon for the average tax refund to start lower and then rise as the filing season progresses.

That’s partly because the IRS can’t issue refunds tied to returns claiming the EITC and ACTC until Feb. 15. Complex returns, more common among high-income taxpayers, can also take longer to prepare and file.

IRS data compiled by the Bipartisan Policy Center suggests that, in recent years, the average tax refund has risen sharply in mid-February before easing slightly ahead of Tax Day.

The IRS reports the average refund amount in its weekly filing statistics — not the median — so the figure can be influenced by especially large refunds.

Avg. refund as of Feb. 6: $2,290

Avg. refund as of Feb. 7: $2,065

Avg. refund as of Feb. 21: $3,453

Avg. refund in 2025: $3,167

Avg. refund as of Feb. 9: $1,741

Avg. refund as of Feb. 23: $3,213

Avg. refund in 2024: $3,138

Who could see bigger tax refunds

President Trump has promoted this year’s filing period as potentially “the largest tax refund season of all time” following more than 100 changes to the tax code under his 2025 legislation.

Still, refund amounts will vary across households.

Provisions such as a higher standard deduction, enhanced Child Tax Credit and new senior deduction are expected to reduce tax bills by hundreds of dollars for tens of millions of taxpayers, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Other changes, however, are projected to deliver savings in the thousands of dollars for a smaller group of filers — including certain workers who receive tips or overtime pay.

Principal Asset Management, a global investment firm, estimates that the average tax refund will rise by nearly $700 to $3,800 per filer in 2026.

Middle and higher-income households are expected to see the largest gains, potentially receiving about $1,000 more on average, the firm said. By contrast, lower-income households — who already pay little or no federal income taxes — may only see modest gains of less than $100 in additional tax refunds.

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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