The 2026 midterm cycle is already bustling with activity as Senate Republicans gear up to defend their majority and Democrats try to reverse course from a difficult few years and chart a path forward.

The fields are starting to take shape as incumbents decide whether to run again, candidates launch campaigns and party leaders attempt to woo their top choices.

It’s all happening against the backdrop of constant action at the White House and Congress’ push to enact President Trump’s massive tax bill — both of which will play outsize roles in the coming cycle.

Here’s an early look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year.

Georgia

Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.) is considered the most vulnerable Democrat on the Senate map and Republicans have eagerly been awaiting the chance to win back the seat.

But they were barely a quarter of the way into the cycle when Republicans got their first big piece of bad recruitment news: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decided against a Senate bid, depriving the GOP of its top choice across the entire 2026 map.

His decision scrambled the race. Not only did it deprive the GOP of a top-tier candidate in a crucial race, it also increases the chances of a bloody primary.

“Kemp is the 1:1 on the board. Full stop,” one GOP operative said. “This is a situation where you want a primary. Where you want them to show their mettle because I just don’t think that we have a clear enough indication on any of these guys to say they can do it.”

Multiple Republicans indicated they expect a primary much like what happened in Ohio last year: a crowded field of B-tier candidates, many of whom will prompt more questions than answers.

The field is already starting to take shape. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) is in, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is out and operatives believe Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) may follow Carter into the primary.

More are likely to go for it, but none that are considered heavy hitters at this stage. Top party figures have been hoping for freshman Rep. Brian Jack (R-Ga.) to take the plunge, but few expect him to do so. There have also been murmurs around Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins and Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler — but nothing more.

Republicans concede Ossoff will be to beat without Kemp, pointing to his growing war chest, battle-tested history and penchant for avoiding missteps........

© The Hill