Climate action has long been a flagship European policy. As negotiators gather in Brazil for Cop30, however, Europe’s leadership risks faltering. Things were very different a decade ago in Paris, when a landmark deal to limit global heating to 1.5C was achieved at Cop21. That agreement relied on an understanding between the US and China – one that would be difficult to replicate today. Its ambition was elevated by Europe acting in concert with a broad coalition of global south countries.

The Paris climate agreement paved the way for the European Green Deal in 2019, which enshrined into law the ambition of climate neutrality in the EU by 2050 and introduced the world’s first comprehensive plan to achieve it, featuring a robust set of pricing, regulatory and funding measures.

Admittedly, not everything was flawless. In envisioning a green future, European politicians failed to account sufficiently for the social impact of the energy transition. The EU’s efforts to engage with and compensate those who stood to lose fell short. Regions and workers reliant on carbon-intensive industries, disadvantaged social groups and poorer countries disproportionately affected by the climate crisis and regressive economic consequences of the transition were all hit. Criticism of these failings is valid, but the EU undeniably backed its commitments with action, putting its money where its mouth was.

Today in Brazil, Europe’s climate leadership could unravel. This is not only because the

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