Vladimir Putin will probably never give up on his attempts to bring Ukraine into Russia – which is where it belongs, according to his warped view of history. Those who oppose him tend to fall out of windows or suffer other “accidents” or go to prison.

If he agrees to a ceasefire, it will be only to gain time to replenish his forces before trying again. All that would stop him then would be armed peacekeepers of some kind, as is already being discussed. If someone replaces him from his inner circle, there is unlikely to be change.

However, somewhere well-hidden in Moscow, there must be people yearning for real peace, which would include recognising Ukraine as a sovereign country, just as during the cold war there were people fairly well-hidden in the communist establishment who yearned for democracy. They got their chance when Mikhail Gorbachev became leader in 1985. Sadly, the chance was bungled.

While waiting with slender hopes for the appearance of these benign forces, it is worth reminding everyone that there is an organisation in place with many of the skills and machinery for promoting democracy and peace in Europe. This is the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which is about to celebrate the 50th anniversary of its founding document, generally known as “the Helsinki final act”.

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