For years, we’ve looked at democracies like the US, Germany and South Korea, disturbed by what a nation divided along gender and generation lines could look like. Australia, by comparison, seemed less polarised, but new research hints that something’s starting to shift – slowly, unevenly and with plenty of caveats – among young Australians too.

But let’s not jump the gun – because the story is more complicated than it first appears, and framing “young men” as a purely reactionary force isn’t going to get us anywhere helpful.

For starters, we don’t even agree on what “progressive” or “conservative” means. Some surveys measure ideology in vague terms, others zoom in on specific issues. And younger generations often defy neat ideological labels – they can be inclusive and tolerant in some areas, but more traditional in others.

Analysis of 2001–2023 Hilda survey data by the e61 Institute found that, in 2023, young gen Z men were more conservative on gender roles than millennial or gen X men. In fact, 15 to 24-year-old men were more conservative than every other male group, bar over-65s, and their more progressive female peers.

But the data also suggests that as people age, they often mellow out a bit – or in this case liberalise. A panel of 15 to 24-year-olds surveyed in earlier waves became more progressive as they moved into the 25 to 34 group – just as the last batch did. This pattern, if it holds, could mean today’s young men might follow a similar trajectory to the last batch.

Another important nuance missing in headlines is a small but notable........

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