In July, Scotland’s first minister, John Swinney, set out a three-stage plan to achieve separation from the United Kingdom. Part one would “build the highest levels of support possible” for independence. Part two involved a plan to “turn the heat up on Westminster” to concede a new referendum. Part three would require an “emphatic win” in next May’s Scottish parliament elections.

If Mr Swinney’s plan sounded familiar, that’s because it is. Previous nationalist first ministers have tried similar strategies in recent times – but all without success. Mr Swinney may meet a similar fate, because the Scottish National party looks unlikely to be able to deliver. Support for independence hovers around the 50% mark, but the UK government will not concede a referendum, while the SNP, although leading in

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