When Sir Keir Starmer told reporters last week that his government’s upcoming budget would “build on what we’ve done” by focusing on “living standards” and “making sure that people feel better off”, it was clear that he was trying to shift the political narrative from soulless statistics to lived experience.

But if the prime minister is serious, he should look at the latest forecast from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The thinktank warns that while some households may indeed “feel better off”, many – particularly the poorest – will not. NIESR says real disposable income for the bottom tenth of households will fall this year. Living standards for the poorest fifth of Britain are well below their pre-pandemic level.

This analysis rather deflates Treasury ministers’ claims that real wages under Labour had risen more in 10 months than they had in the 10 previous years of Conservative government. This political attack line might be arithmetically sound, but to make it stick requires a generous statistical interpretation.........

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