On 20 May, a federal court in the state of Florida indicted the former Cuban president Raúl Castro over his alleged involvement in downing two civilian planes piloted by US nationals in 1996. Castro was the defense minister of Cuba at the time, and aircraft with the Cuban armed forces carried out the attacks. The charges include one count of conspiracy to kill US nationals, two counts of destruction of aircraft and four counts of murder.

On the one hand, the indictment was not a surprise. Immediately after the Trump administration’s bombing of Caracas and extraction of the sitting Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, in January – actions bolstered by a similar indictment against Maduro emanating from a federal district court in New York – numerous indicators suggested that Cuba was next on the list. The Castro indictment seemingly confirms these suspicions, though questions remain about what comes next: will US forces carry out a similar bombing and extraction operation in Cuba? Will there be a full-scale invasion of the island? Or will the threat of these actions be enough to force concessions that might, at least in the short term, satisfy Trump officials?

What is certain, however, is that this indictment is not actually meant to protect people from state violence. In fact, in any of the above scenarios, Cuban civilians will suffer tremendously.

To be clear, Cuban civilians are already suffering due to US aggression. US policy has long relied on sanctions and embargoes to pressure Cuban leadership – a strategy that is proven to fall most heavily on civilians – and the Trump administration has intensified these tactics in recent months, mostly notably by cutting off vital oil supplies. Shortages of food, medicine and other materials were already a major problem on the island, and now Cuba is falling into a full-scale humanitarian crisis.

Moreover, we can expect........

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