German politicians used to know where they were with their voters. If they gave you one term in power, they were likely to offer a second serving and quite possibly third and sometimes even fourth helpings. Konrad Adenauer, the Christian Democrat who was the first chancellor of West Germany, had more than 14 years in the role. The social democrat Helmut Schmidt clocked up more than eight. Helmut Kohl, whose captaincy encompassed the fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification, was at the helm for 16 years. It was seven for Gerhard Schröder and 16 for Angela Merkel. Chancellor of Germany used to come with lots of job security.

Read those numbers and weep, Olaf Scholz. The recent implosion of his “traffic light” coalition is to be followed by early elections. Given how he’s polling, it will be a huge surprise if Herr Scholz is returned as chancellor. He won’t have managed to get to the end of one term, never mind enjoy the multiple ones awarded to most of his predecessors.

Chalk that up to another lash of the anti-incumbent fury that has been raging around the world in this year of many elections. We’ve seen Japan’s Liberal Democrats put in their worst performance in a quarter of a century. South Africa’s ANC lost its majority for the first time in 30 years of full democracy. Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party went to the polls in India seeking to achieve a “super-majority” only to be shorn of one. Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance didn’t fare well in the national assembly elections that he rashly called in June, while Poland’s hard right Law and Justice party was booted out of power last year. In this context, Kamala Harris’s defeat by Donald Trump is not perhaps such a total shocker. Less a case of American exceptionalism, more an example of the US conforming to a global trend.

The anti-ruler rule is not completely cast iron. In Mexico, the presidency was retained by the incumbent party. In Indonesia, the presidential election was won by the defence minister, amid complaints from the opposition that it wasn’t a fair fight. These are exceptions. The anti-incumbent tidal wave of the........

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