Last week, US Deputy Assistant Secretary John Mark Pommersheim was in Islamabad discussing expanded cooperation in energy and critical minerals and advancing a proposed US–Pakistan Critical Minerals Framework Agreement. Just days earlier, Federal Minister for Energy Ali Pervaiz Malik had represented Pakistan at the US-hosted Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, DC. The choreography was deliberate. Pakistan wants to signal readiness. Washington wants alternative suppliers. Both sides see opportunity.

But opportunity is not outcome. Unless Pakistan’s domestic conditions improve, its rare earth and minerals diplomacy will remain aspirational. The barrier is not geology. It is the state of security, politics and the investment climate.

The US push on critical minerals is part of a larger effort to diversify supply chains away from China’s dominance in processing and midstream control. Rare earth elements are indispensable for electric vehicles, wind turbines, precision-guided systems and advanced electronics. Copper is central to electrification and renewable grids. Washington’s February ministerial was framed as coalition-building with South and Central Asian states to secure more resilient supply chains.

Pakistan fits into this conversation as a potential upstream supplier. The Reko Diq copper-gold deposit in Balochistan is one of the largest undeveloped reserves of its kind. The project is structured with Barrick holding 50 per cent, while 25 per cent each is held by the Government of Balochistan and the federal state-owned enterprises. The US Export-Import Bank has approved 1.25 billion dollars in financing related to the project, underscoring American strategic interest.

Beyond copper and gold, geological surveys have identified chromite, antimony and rare earth element occurrences in parts of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, internationally verified data on commercially viable rare earth reserves remain limited. Exploration and certification are still required before large-scale production becomes credible. The term “rare earth” has entered political discourse faster than it has entered bankable reserve statements.

The 500 million dollar MoU signed in September 2025 between US Strategic Metals and Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organization was presented as a breakthrough. Pakistan also dispatched an initial shipment under that agreement as a symbolic milestone. Yet MoUs are not final investment decisions. Mining projects require multi-year sequencing, including detailed feasibility studies, environmental approvals, infrastructure development and security arrangements. Only sustained political........

© The Friday Times