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The dilemma of the right strategic choice

26 1
07.06.2025

Right or wrong, fallacious or prudent, assertive or devastative, India has announced its intent. She calls it the 'new normal' and call it what we may, she is unlikely to desist from it till Modi dispensation is in place — unless someone can hammer sense into this ludicrous mindset. Clearly, she has chosen to challenge the prevailing deterrence regime around nuclear capability on both sides.

Her army chief declared in his public interactions at the Shangrila Dialogue that there was space for a conventional war under the nuclear overhang without really testing the threshold. Problem? Threshold is both numerative as well as perceptive.

It translates thus: If and when India attributes a 'terror' event on its territory to Pakistan she will respond by attacking Pakistan in the name of neutralising terror network and its sponsors. This does not take into consideration international obligations which bind nations to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other countries.

Neither will India honour the sanctity of international borders under agreed covenants of international law. In fact, India will violate those norms to assert its strategic dominance over Pakistan rubbishing any respect and deference in compliance of the internationally recognised principles of peaceful coexistence and neighbourly courtesy.

India will go to war against Pakistan every time a 'terror event' takes place on its soil. That leaves Pakistan with only one option: defend against this aggression and fight back as evinced in the four-day war.

I believe, in doing so, India is probing the limits of the space for conventional war in a nuclear environment. She began with a proclaimed 2016 surgical strike, to the Balakot 2019 expedition, to her most recent misadventure. In each case Pakistan acted........

© The Express Tribune