Pakistan once stood at the edge of promise - a young nation alive with ambition, industry, and the dream of joining Asia's rising tigers. But somewhere along the way, that energy dimmed. Growth lost its rhythm, and progress began to circle instead of climb. The country now finds itself caught in what economists call the Middle-Income Trap — a place where nations rise above abject poverty but fail to reach prosperity. In this zone, costs rise faster than productivity, innovation stalls, and ambition outpaces capacity. Pakistan, once a symbol of potential, risks becoming an example of inertia — not poor enough for aid, yet not strong enough to compete.

The trap captures countries that grow through low-wage manufacturing and basic exports but stumble when wages rise, and productivity fails to keep pace. Argentina, Brazil and Thailand have struggled in this space for decades. Pakistan's case is similar: an economy that moves, but no longer moves forward.

Take exports. Pakistan's total exports stood around $32 billion, barely changed in years. By contrast, Vietnam's exports crossed $354 billion, despite both economies starting at similar levels two decades ago. While Bangladesh and Vietnam diversified into electronics, garments and machinery, Pakistan remains locked into low-value textiles and primary commodities. Its inability to upgrade the export base has kept the external sector stagnant and vulnerable.

Human capital tells a similar story. Pakistan spends barely 1.5 per cent of GDP on........

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