I was all set to write on why talks between Pakistan and Afghan Taliban are not making any progress, but then came the big headline, 'Pakistan, Afghan Taliban reach interim understanding in Istanbul talks.' This takes us to the next level, and the big question now will be whether the ceasefire agreement can convert into an enduring peace agreement. To answer this question, I would like to draw some assumptions by viewing the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship from five different angles: of negative peace, ideology, power politics, deterrence and the Pakistan-India rivalry.

The nature of the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship is such that if there will ever be peace between the two countries, it will be what political scientists call 'negative peace' — peace maintained by the absence of war rather than the presence of goodwill. States act rationally and compromise when the fear is mutual. Pakistan fears spillover of instability and terrorism, and Afghanistan depends on Pakistan for trade and access. This mutual vulnerability can sustain an inter-state relationship which is likely to be powered only by negative peace.

Afghanistan's foreign policy embodies an ideological mindset shaped by extremist ideological convictions that prioritise belief over strategy. This approach under the Taliban has led Afghanistan to regional and international isolation, thus Afghanistan has a foreign policy that is constrained by ideological rigidity with little strategic flexibility and foresight. Ideology comes from shared values and worldviews. China endured 100 years of humiliation from 1840 to 1940.

Over a hundred years of social and economic injustice,........

© The Express Tribune