The fragile ceasefire between Pakistan and India may remain intact, but tension is far from over. The two nuclear-armed neighbours, with a long history of wars and military standoffs, are now entering a new, far more perilous phase in their relationship.

Consider the post-Pulwama episode of February 2019. Despite India's airstrikes on Balakot and Pakistan's swift military response, tensions were de-escalated relatively quickly. Diplomatic ties, though briefly strained, were soon normalised. Borders remained open, and even the Indus Waters Treaty — often cited as a pressure point — was not weaponised. In fact, weeks after the military standoff, then-Prime Minister Imran Khan went so far as to express a preference for Modi's re-election, believing a hardliner like him might finally resolve the deadlock. That assumption, however, was wrong.

Today, the landscape is starkly different. After the Pahalgam attack, India took a series of unprecedented steps. It suspended the IWT for the first time since 1960,........

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