The Taliban takeover of Kabul on 15 August 2021 was met with a mix of high excitement and cautious skepticism in Pakistan. Country's political and security establishment considered it as an opportunity to secure Pakistan's western borders, hoping that the Taliban regime will address its two longstanding core concerns - rolling back Indian influence; and denying sanctuaries to militant groups targeting Pakistan. However, four years on, Pakistani officials say their expectations proved to be pure illusions. Since the return of Taliban at the helm in Afghanistan, security situation along Pakistan's western border has deteriorated with every passing year. In contrast, before Doha process gained momentum in 2020, Pakistan had largely decimated TTP.

The change of regime in Kabul infused new life into TTP. With liberty to move freely around Afghanistan, access to sophisticated weapons abandoned by Afghan National Army and flushed with cash, the group rapidly reorganised and regenerated its capabilities. Similarly, BLA that had been severely weakened due to military crackdown also reinvigorated under changed regional strategic environment. But during the period coinciding with the Taliban rule, BLA attacks in Pakistan have increased manifold in frequency and lethality.

Frustrated by worsening security situation, Pakistan has been alternating between soft and hard power measures against the present Afghan regime. Diplomatic measures like visits to Kabul by high-level officials, delegations of renowned clerics, tribal elders, parliamentarians as well as punitive actions ranging from instituting visa regime replacing open borders, closure of border crossings, suspension of trade to aerial strikes against TTP hideouts, all have failed to move Kabul against anti-Pakistan militant groups. The situation,........

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