The Australian Defence Force (ADF) has been facing a recruitment crisis for years. A lack of young people wanting to join has prompted a variety of responses from the force, including opening eligibility to some foreigners.

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Given talk of chronic shortages and a perennial recruitment crisis in Western volunteer forces, it's somewhat surprising to see there's finally been some progress.

Recruitment has risen by 17 per cent over last year's figure. This exceeds planned growth and reverses a steady decline over the past 15 years, albeit still falls around 1000 people short of the financial year target of 8105.

Applications were also up by a whopping 28 per cent.

So what has changed to explain this turnaround? In order to maintain it and be better prepared for the security challenges Australia faces, we need to know what's behind it.

In short, the recruitment drive is working.

We were commissioned by the ADF to examine declining recruitment. As of June last year, only 80 per cent of the 69,000 personnel needed to meet future challenges had signed up. We wanted to know why.

Some of reasons are cultural: young Australians today - those in Gen Z - have more circumspect attitudes to nation and duty compared to previous generations.

They also face greater mental health challenges that - rightly or wrongly - make many feel unsuited to serve their country.

Economic factors play a role too. Low unemployment and a perception of better opportunities, work conditions and future prospects in the private sector also contribute.

We can make sense of the Australian figures by eliminating some possible explanations. The first is the idea that international conflict is driving recruitment.

Looking at comparable countries with volunteer........

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