More than a week after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the conflict has escalated into a multi-front war.

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Australians should ask what this crisis reveals about the credibility of the "rules-based international order" the Australian government says it defends.

The US and Israel justify the campaign as "pre-emptive self-defence" to prevent Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, degrade its missile and drone capabilities, suppress air defences, disrupt command structures, and induce regime change.

Many Australians share concerns over Iran's authoritarian regime under the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in the initial strikes along with senior IRGC commanders and officials.

Yet the UN Charter authorises force only with Security Council approval or in response to an actual or imminent armed attack. Preventive strikes based on future threats are widely regarded as unlawful under the Charter. The US-Israeli operations - involving thousands of strikes on military, nuclear-related, leadership, and security sites - were unauthorised and not strictly defensive at the outset. This erodes the legal framework further. Australians should hesitate to accept such precedents simply because they involve our closest ally.

Civilian casualties and damage to non-military sites have risen sharply. Iranian authorities report more than 1200 killed and hundreds injured, with strikes hitting residential areas, government buildings, a sports stadium, an all-girls school reportedly causing significant student deaths, and broadcasting facilities. In Israel, Iranian missile strikes have killed civilians and injured hundreds more. Gulf states have also reported casualties. These incidents require serious investigation under the laws of armed conflict, particularly regarding proportionality and targeting.

A rule permitting Washington and Jerusalem to strike perceived future threats logically allows Beijing, Moscow or others to do the same. For middle powers like Australia, dependent on international law to balance great-power dominance, such selective application is deeply troubling.

The UN's weakness reflects great-power conduct, not institutional failure. Russia's unauthorised invasion of Ukraine and the current US-Israeli campaign reinforce a growing perception that rules constrain the weak but exempt the strong, undermining the system's legitimacy.

Israel's actions also warrant scrutiny. It invokes self-defence against existential threats, yet questions over legality, proportionality, and civilian casualties persist. The conflict has expanded into Lebanon against Hezbollah, with evacuation orders in southern Lebanon, strikes on Beirut suburbs and renewed clashes on Lebanese territory, leaving dozens dead. Some of these operations are in defence of territory not internationally recognised as part of Israel.

These issues raise difficult questions for Australia, a supplier of military equipment and supporter of Israel. Emerging legal norms suggest states should withhold arms or assistance where there is a credible risk of war crimes. If evidence of unlawful conduct by the IDF accumulates, Australia could face claims of complicity. Australians who served with the IDF and were involved in alleged violations should be investigated under Australian law.

Iran's response has deliberately broadened the conflict. Beyond barrages on Israel and US facilities, Tehran has targeted military and infrastructure sites in multiple countries while threatening oil facilities, shipping, and civilian aviation. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have already unsettled energy markets. Fuel retailers in Australia were quick to pass on anticipated future costs to consumers. By raising the global economic cost of the war, Iran hopes to force US restraint, but it risks drawing more states into a wider conflict.

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Inside Iran, the future remains uncertain. Khamenei's death has led to the formation of an Interim Leadership Council, but external military strikes rarely produce stable democratic transitions. Consolidation by the IRGC, factional struggles, or prolonged instability appear more likely outcomes than Iranians welcoming the return of exiled "Crown Prince" Reza Pahlavi.

For Australians, the crisis's most significant implications lie in Canberra. The Albanese government's response has been cautious and largely deferential. It has supported US efforts to prevent Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, avoided Australian military involvement, rejected mourning Khamenei citing past Iranian-backed threats on Australian soil, and emphasised alliance solidarity - without criticising Washington or Jerusalem. Foreign Minister Penny Wong has declined to address the legality of the US and Israeli strikes. The subservience of the Albanese government recalls the "All the way with LBJ" period of the Vietnam era.

The US alliance remains central to Australia's security. But uncritical alignment risks hollowing out our claim to defend a rules-based international order. If international law matters when condemning China's actions in the South China Sea, it must matter when allies test or disregard the same rules.

Australians expect no unnecessary provocation of President Trump. Yet we should expect Canberra to defend our interests and apply the principles it invokes elsewhere. Independent assessment of the strikes' legality, proportionality, and strategic wisdom would not weaken the alliance - in the long run, it may be essential to preserving the credibility of the rules-based order the alliance claims to defend.

A consistent approach also strengthens Australia's standing in the Indo-Pacific. Many regional states already view talk of a rules-based international order with scepticism, seeing it applied selectively depending on who breaches the rules.

If Australia wants partners in Southeast Asia and the Pacific to support international norms in the face of growing great-power rivalry, we must demonstrate that those rules apply equally to adversaries and allies alike.

Professor Clive Williams MG is a former Australian Defence intelligence officer and an Honorary Professor at the Australian National University's Law Faculty.

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