China Power | Diplomacy | East Asia

With Orban Gone, China Has Lost Its Best Friend in the EU

During Viktor Orban’s 16 years as the prime minister, Hungary became the most China-friendly EU country. Now Beijing may encounter a more united Europe.

Hungary’s then-Prime Minister Viktor Orban (left) accompanies China’s President Xi Jinping to a welcome ceremony ahead of their summit meeting in Budapest, Hungary, May 10, 2024.

The Hungarian elections, in which longstanding Prime Minister Viktor Orban lost, attracted major international attention. Indeed, the results will have repercussions far beyond Hungarian borders. And while much of commentary focuses on the implications for the European Union, United States, and Russia; China also had a stake here.

In several recent elections worldwide, including the last presidential clash in the U.S., it was not entirely clear what China’s preference would be. For instance, while much of the world seemed to have concerns about a second term for Donald Trump, China was said to be prepared better than others. In Hungary, however, China’s preference was clear: Beijing has long grown used to working with Orban and his government.

To understand the implications of the elections for China, it is important to recognize that Hungary’s friendly positions toward China have not been the result of Beijing’s pressure. It was Orban who decided to send friendly signals to China as part of his political program, which has increasingly focused on criticism of liberal democracy, the EU, and the West. By engaging China, Orban signaled to Brussels, and also domestically, that he had important connections.

Although Chinese investments in Hungary in recent years have been significant, China’s economic presence in the country is actually quite limited: China has no leverage to directly influence major policy decisions. Indeed, Hungary – like its Central European neighbors – is highly integrated within Central European value chains, with most of their trade and investment exchanges being within the EU, especially Germany. 

As a result, the new Hungarian government should have the freedom to chart a new course of foreign policy on China. Incoming Prime Minister Peter Magyar has suggested that Hungary would become more cooperative with the EU. While not turning Hungary into a China hawk, it can be expected that the government under Magyar would not veto EU criticism of China and would refrain from rhetorical support for China.

And such political and symbolic........

© The Diplomat