The Pulse | Politics | South Asia

Nepal Heads to the Polls in a Generational Reckoning

More than in any previous Nepali election, the vote on March 5 will revolve around cults of personality.

Screenshot of a Rastriya Swatantra Party video showing its leaders and activists campaigning in the 2026 Nepali general election.

It’s being billed as a battle between the “old” and the “new.” In pre-election polls and interviews, Nepalis have clearly stated their desire to break with the status quo. This means moving away from the same set of oldish politicians – and the corruption and cronyism they promoted – who have, by turns, led the country for the past two decades.

On March 5, at least 60 percent of around 19 million eligible voters are expected to cast their ballots. Of the voters, 52 percent are aged 18-40 – the group that will have the biggest say in who wins the election.

Nepal’s mixed electoral system makes it hard to make definite predictions, yet there is a consensus on a few key likely outcomes. First, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which emerged as the fourth largest force in the 2022 general elections, bagging 21 of the 275 lower house seats, is expected to multiply its vote tally. It could even get a majority on its own.

This is because Balendra Shah, the 35-year-old popular former mayor of Kathmandu, is the RSP’s prime ministerial candidate. Shah, an ex-rapper, has captured the imagination of young Nepalis – the country’s average age is just 26 – unlike any other contemporary politician. He was also the unofficial custodian of the 2025 Gen Z uprising, a youth-led movement that led to the ouster of the KP Sharma Oli government.

Shah’s lateral entry into the RSP will greatly boost its electoral prospects.

Another party that is expected to do well is the Nepali Congress, the old champion of liberal democracy and the biggest party in the erstwhile parliament. Following the Gen Z uprising, a group of younger Congress leaders like Gagan Thapa and Biswo Prakash Sharma were able to push aside the old party leader, Sher Bahadur Deuba, a five-time prime minister. Thapa is now the Congress’ prime ministerial candidate and the party appears rejuvenated under him.

At the other extreme, perhaps the biggest loser in the election will be the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), the moderate communist force that was the second largest party in the dissolved parliament. Oli, the UML chairman, is accused of overseeing the killing of unarmed Nepali youths during the uprising. Oli is probably the most unpopular politician in Nepal right now. The formidable UML grassroots organization might not be able to save the party this time.

There are also a few other actors in play: Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s Nepal Communist Party, which in its earlier avatar fought a decade-long Maoist insurgency; the pro-monarchy and pro-Hindu state Rastriya Prajatantra Party; various identity-politics inclined parties from the country’s lowlands; plus a few other outfits that have sprung up in the wake of the uprising.

Yet most of the 275 seats up for grabs on March 5 are expected to be divided between the RSP, the Nepali Congress, and the CPN-UML.

More than in any previous Nepali election, this vote will revolve around personality cults. Those voting for the RSP will not so much vote for a party that took ownership of the Gen Z uprising as for the larger-than-life persona of Balendra Shah. And the same goes for Gagan Thapa of the Nepali Congress and KP Oli of the CPN-UML.

This is also because this time each of these parties has declared their prime ministerial candidates, an unusual practice in the history of Nepali parliamentary democracy. Another reason for this yearning for charismatic leaders is that the youth today seem little invested in political ideologies. They are in a mood to elect someone who is clean and competent, irrespective of the candidate’s ideological beliefs.

Another salient feature of the upcoming election will be that the agendas of restoring the monarchy and the Hindu state will find limited traction. The monarchists have been making a lot of noise, what with the ex-king being part of massive welcome ceremonies and asking for “broader political understanding” before the election. The identity-based parties are also likely to have limited appeal beyond their pocket areas.

Again, it would be wonderful for one party to get an absolute majority and run the country for the next five years. Yet, since 1990, no government in Nepal has served out its full term. It could well be the same this time.

For instance, even if Shah’s RSP gets a majority, it could be rocked by internal divisions. There are already troubling signs of a rift between Balendra Shah and the party chief Rabi Lamichhane, another person with a big ego who is uncomfortable being overshadowed by the young rapper. To further complicate things, Lamichhane is battling a bevy of embezzlement-related court cases.

More likely, there will be another coalition government, and in that case, people fear the same kind of horse-trading, nepotism and corruption that characterized the previous coalition governments could be repeated.

In a more optimistic reading, whatever the outcome of the election, it will mark the arrival of a younger and cleaner group of parliamentarians and government representatives – a big win in its own right.

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It’s being billed as a battle between the “old” and the “new.” In pre-election polls and interviews, Nepalis have clearly stated their desire to break with the status quo. This means moving away from the same set of oldish politicians – and the corruption and cronyism they promoted – who have, by turns, led the country for the past two decades.

On March 5, at least 60 percent of around 19 million eligible voters are expected to cast their ballots. Of the voters, 52 percent are aged 18-40 – the group that will have the biggest say in who wins the election.

Nepal’s mixed electoral system makes it hard to make definite predictions, yet there is a consensus on a few key likely outcomes. First, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which emerged as the fourth largest force in the 2022 general elections, bagging 21 of the 275 lower house seats, is expected to multiply its vote tally. It could even get a majority on its own.

This is because Balendra Shah, the 35-year-old popular former mayor of Kathmandu, is the RSP’s prime ministerial candidate. Shah, an ex-rapper, has captured the imagination of young Nepalis – the country’s average age is just 26 – unlike any other contemporary politician. He was also the unofficial custodian of the 2025 Gen Z uprising, a youth-led movement that led to the ouster of the KP Sharma Oli government.

Shah’s lateral entry into the RSP will greatly boost its electoral prospects.

Another party that is expected to do well is the Nepali Congress, the old champion of liberal democracy and the biggest party in the erstwhile parliament. Following the Gen Z uprising, a group of younger Congress leaders like Gagan Thapa and Biswo Prakash Sharma were able to push aside the old party leader, Sher Bahadur Deuba, a five-time prime minister. Thapa is now the Congress’ prime ministerial candidate and the party appears rejuvenated under him.

At the other extreme, perhaps the biggest loser in the election will be the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), the moderate communist force that was the second largest party in the dissolved parliament. Oli, the UML chairman, is accused of overseeing the killing of unarmed Nepali youths during the uprising. Oli is probably the most unpopular politician in Nepal right now. The formidable UML grassroots organization might not be able to save the party this time.

There are also a few other actors in play: Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s Nepal Communist Party, which in its earlier avatar fought a decade-long Maoist insurgency; the pro-monarchy and pro-Hindu state Rastriya Prajatantra Party; various identity-politics inclined parties from the country’s lowlands; plus a few other outfits that have sprung up in the wake of the uprising.

Yet most of the 275 seats up for grabs on March 5 are expected to be divided between the RSP, the Nepali Congress, and the CPN-UML.

More than in any previous Nepali election, this vote will revolve around personality cults. Those voting for the RSP will not so much vote for a party that took ownership of the Gen Z uprising as for the larger-than-life persona of Balendra Shah. And the same goes for Gagan Thapa of the Nepali Congress and KP Oli of the CPN-UML.

This is also because this time each of these parties has declared their prime ministerial candidates, an unusual practice in the history of Nepali parliamentary democracy. Another reason for this yearning for charismatic leaders is that the youth today seem little invested in political ideologies. They are in a mood to elect someone who is clean and competent, irrespective of the candidate’s ideological beliefs.

Another salient feature of the upcoming election will be that the agendas of restoring the monarchy and the Hindu state will find limited traction. The monarchists have been making a lot of noise, what with the ex-king being part of massive welcome ceremonies and asking for “broader political understanding” before the election. The identity-based parties are also likely to have limited appeal beyond their pocket areas.

Again, it would be wonderful for one party to get an absolute majority and run the country for the next five years. Yet, since 1990, no government in Nepal has served out its full term. It could well be the same this time.

For instance, even if Shah’s RSP gets a majority, it could be rocked by internal divisions. There are already troubling signs of a rift between Balendra Shah and the party chief Rabi Lamichhane, another person with a big ego who is uncomfortable being overshadowed by the young rapper. To further complicate things, Lamichhane is battling a bevy of embezzlement-related court cases.

More likely, there will be another coalition government, and in that case, people fear the same kind of horse-trading, nepotism and corruption that characterized the previous coalition governments could be repeated.

In a more optimistic reading, whatever the outcome of the election, it will mark the arrival of a younger and cleaner group of parliamentarians and government representatives – a big win in its own right.

Biswas Baral is the Editor of The Kathmandu Post and a columnist for The Diplomat. He writes on Nepal’s domestic politics and foreign policy.

2026 Nepal general elections

Rastriya Swatantra Party

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