The Pulse | Politics | South Asia

Nepal Heads to the Polls in a Generational Reckoning

More than in any previous Nepali election, the vote on March 5 will revolve around cults of personality.

Screenshot of a Rastriya Swatantra Party video showing its leaders and activists campaigning in the 2026 Nepali general election.

It’s being billed as a battle between the “old” and the “new.” In pre-election polls and interviews, Nepalis have clearly stated their desire to break with the status quo. This means moving away from the same set of oldish politicians – and the corruption and cronyism they promoted – who have, by turns, led the country for the past two decades.

On March 5, at least 60 percent of around 19 million eligible voters are expected to cast their ballots. Of the voters, 52 percent are aged 18-40 – the group that will have the biggest say in who wins the election.

Nepal’s mixed electoral system makes it hard to make definite predictions, yet there is a consensus on a few key likely outcomes. First, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which emerged as the fourth largest force in the 2022 general elections, bagging 21 of the 275 lower house seats, is expected to multiply its vote tally. It could even get a majority on its own.

This is because Balendra Shah, the 35-year-old popular former mayor of Kathmandu, is the RSP’s prime ministerial candidate. Shah, an ex-rapper, has captured the imagination of young Nepalis – the country’s average age is just 26 – unlike any other contemporary politician. He was also the unofficial custodian of the 2025 Gen Z uprising, a youth-led movement that led to the ouster of the KP Sharma Oli government.

Shah’s lateral entry into the RSP will greatly boost its electoral prospects.

Another party that is expected to do well is the Nepali Congress, the old champion of liberal democracy and the biggest party in the erstwhile parliament. Following the Gen Z uprising, a group of younger Congress leaders like Gagan Thapa and Biswo Prakash Sharma were able to push aside the old party leader, Sher Bahadur Deuba, a five-time prime minister. Thapa is now the Congress’ prime ministerial candidate and the party appears rejuvenated under him.

At the other extreme, perhaps the biggest loser in the election will be the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), the moderate communist force that was the second largest party in the dissolved parliament. Oli, the UML chairman, is accused of overseeing the killing of unarmed Nepali youths during the uprising. Oli is probably the most unpopular politician in Nepal right now. The formidable UML grassroots organization might not be able to save the party this time.

There are also a few other actors in play: Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s Nepal Communist Party, which in its earlier........

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