Nine months after the 2024 election, we’ve been graced with definitive dissections of the electorate and how it has changed since that escalator ride 10 years and one month ago. There’s wide agreement in the analyses of The Associated Press/Fox News Vote Cast, the Democrat firm Catalist’s What Happened, and the Pew Research Center analysis.

All three conclude that President Donald Trump owed his first popular vote plurality to gains from racial minorities, especially Hispanics, and from the young, especially men. The result, as a Pew chart shows, is a less racially polarized electorate, contrary to the many earlier analyses that Trump’s supposed “racism” would repel minority voters.

This also confounds the optimistic projections of Democrats like pollster Stan Greenberg that Democrats would benefit from an “ascendant majority” of groups—Hispanics, millennials, and college graduates—destined to be a growing share of the electorate.

The Associated Press, Catalist, and Pew reports also take note of what is now old news: the sharp polarization of white college graduates and white nongraduates. That came as a surprise in 2016: There........

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