INGERSOLL: The Civilization-Ending Display Actually Happened, Just Not How We Thought

Supporters of the Iran-backed Houthi movement, brandish their weapons as they rally in solidarity with Iran and Lebanon, in Sanaa on April 8, 2026, following the announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East war. The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire barely an hour before the US president's April 8 deadline to obliterate the country, triggering global relief alongside apprehension. (Photo by Mohammed HUWAIS / AFP via Getty Images)

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THE END OF CIVILIZATION … JUST NOT HOW WE THOUGHT

Trump promised something “civilization ending” last night if Iran didn’t capitulate. In some ways, he was late to the civilization-ending party. Or maybe he was the center of it?

I’ll get to that in a second, but first I should address Iran.

Literally everyone is melting down about the (fake?) ceasefire deal that occurred. Trump blinked. Trump’s a taco. Trust the plan. Total loss. Half a victory. Trump’s an idiot. He’s a genius. Impeach Trump. 

Iran’s 10-point plan is at least a few weeks old, dressed up to look new. There is also some indication Washington got the Chinese and Pakistanis to pressure Iran to the table. I’m firmly a wait-and-see-what-happens-next kind of guy. The clock is at two weeks. Let’s see what happens, shall we? 

The NYTimes rush released an excerpt of a forthcoming book that revealed the highly detailed deliberations that occurred between Trump and Israel and then Trump and his cabinet in the run up to the war.

This too has caused reactions spanning from arrest the reporters for treason to arrest members of the cabinet. Some believe it makes Trump look bad, others believe it makes him look measured.

Based on what I know about the relationship Trump has with the two reporters on the byline – which is to say he routinely talks to them – I tend to think Trump probably greenlighted the entire thing, to include specific information and quotes from specific members of the cabinet.

Here are the Cliff’s notes:

The Israelis pitched hard. They believed the regime could be changed rather easily. They provided Trump a four-point plan. Decapitate the regime. Destroy its military. Encourage popular uprising. Install a new leader.

Trump took their plan to his cabinet, which was much more circumspect. They believed that points one and two were achievable goals, but that 3 and 4 were “farcical” or “bullshit,” as Rubio put it.

While regime change was an ideal, Trump seemed inclined to believe his cabinet. After much deliberation, which included caution from Vance on even beginning a bombing campaign at all, Trump personally greenlighted the war.

The reporting largely aligns with public statements from Rubio and Trump on the matter. Destroying capabilities and decapitating leadership was always at the forefront, while outright regime change remained aspirational but not a hard promise (you might disagree with me here, and that’s fine, just my read).

In a rare case for Washington, D.C., actions matched the words.

While the bombing campaign was nothing short of gargantuan, efforts to bring about the conditions for a regime change matched the administration’s overall tenor.

The Pentagon staged an aggressive build up of Marines and Green Berets near Kharg Island. Onlookers thought ground invasion was imminent.

Simultaneously, they provided arms to Kurdish militants in the northwest. Some of these arms were supposed to make it into the hands of organized members of the Iranian resistance.

At this point, there had been at least some participation from these Iranian resistance members. They had provided targeting information of IRGC ground assets to Israeli intelligence.

In a perfect world, this three-pronged assault might have........

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