Could the boreal forest be less fragile than we think? Contrary to the predictions of models that forecast its rapid decline in favour of temperate maple forests, the ecological history of the boreal forest is showing surprising resilience.

Maple trees, meanwhile, are advancing more slowly than predicted. As a result, the promised great forest transition may not happen as quickly as imagined.

The composition and structure of forests are the result of complex ecological dynamics that are influenced by several factors, including soil type, ecological disturbances (fires, windfalls, insect epidemics), climate and the ability of species to respond to these conditions.

The boreal forest is a vast biome bordered to the south by the temperate forest. As is the case wherever two large natural environments meet, the transition is not sudden. Instead, there is an intermediate zone called an ecotone, where the characteristics of the two biomes blend together.

This zone is called the boreal-temperate forest ecotone and it encompasses the forests of southern Québec and Ontario. Here, there are small stands of trees typical of boreal and temperate forests, becoming increasingly rare and isolated as they approach conditions that exceed what they can tolerate in order to survive.

As a doctoral student in forest ecology and a professor of plant ecology at l'Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR), respectively, we are interested in the past and present dynamics of stands located at the northern limit of temperate forest species. The sugar maple, a tree that is culturally, ecologically and economically emblematic, is among these.

Our goal is to reconstruct the ecological history of marginal stands in order to better understand their trajectory over time and use this knowledge to anticipate the effect of contemporary global changes on forests.

This article is part of The Conversation Canada’s series The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers

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