Even before votes were counted in this year’s Senedd (Welsh parliament) election, speculation among commentators was rife that one campaign narrative had firmly taken hold – that the contest had become a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.

Both parties promoted that framing during the campaign, urging voters to see the election as a straight choice between them. In the aftermath of the result – and Labour’s losses – attention quickly turned to whether the media had amplified that message, including criticism by a Labour Senedd member who refused to talk to ITV News because of its coverage.

Clearly the media were not solely to blame for Labour’s decline. However, our analysis of election coverage found that more than one in four TV news items featured an opinion poll, often framing the contest as a battle between two parties. On UK-wide flagship bulletins, that figure rose to more than half. In the final week of the campaign, almost half of all TV news items referenced a poll.

From the outset, Plaid Cymru and Reform used campaign slogans that presented the election as a direct battle between the two parties. The implication was that voters should back one of the frontrunners rather than waste their vote on other parties.

That framing carried particular significance........

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