Migration is back at the centre of Australian politics, blamed for everything from housing pressures to crowded trains. Lost in the heated debate is how we select those who will thrive in their new country. We need a process to select the most productive migrants to fill the permanent spots each year.

A better designed points test could quietly transform Australia’s migration program, increase productivity levels and raise tax revenue by billions of dollars a year. Recently announced changes in the budget move in this direction.

Currently, the points test allocates points to potential migrants for characteristics such as community language credentials, regional study, “professional year” programs, specialist qualifications and studying at an Australian university. These criteria do not predict economic success.

A more effective skilled migration points test would select permanent migrants for the traits that actually predict economic success: age, education in certain fields, proficiency in English, and relevant work experience.

These migrants will thrive and effectively contribute to funding the services Australians rely on, contributing billions to our economy every year.

We offer a couple of alternatives, which could access potentially massive benefits for Australia.

What the evidence shows

When the points test was introduced, most applicants were offshore. Today, most points-tested visas go to people already in Australia, in particular international students.

At the same time, the number of people on bridging and other temporary visas has exploded. This backlog is bad, both for migrants living in limbo, and a wider community struggling with housing, services and infrastructure.

Our research uses tax records from 2010–11 to 2021–22, linked to Census and visa data going back to 1990, to track how migrants fare........

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