A 12-year-old government with a premier under siege. An untried opposition that has weathered multiple scandals and leadership changes. And a right-wing populist party on the march among disaffected voters. With all this in play, Victoria’s November state election is shaping up to be one of the most significant in recent memory.

And while it is usually accepted wisdom that state elections are fought on state issues, the rise of One Nation at the expense of the two major parties could offer an insight into what is happening on a federal level.

Challenge of a fourth term

At first glance, this election looks like a familiar story of a long-term government, a restless electorate, and an opposition waiting for its moment. Labor has been in office in Victoria for 12 years, and the weight of that tenure is showing.

Labor has dominated Victorian politics for over two decades, winning six of the last seven elections. Former Coalition PM John Howard dubbed Victoria the “Massachusetts of Australia” in reference to the Victorian Labor’s persistent success. It is widely regarded as the most progressive state in the country, particularly in city seats.

Since returning to office in 2014, it has faced few major electoral threats from the opposition. At the 2022 election, the government – at the time led by Daniel........

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