The expanded men’s World Cup in 2026 has given fans the chance to cheer on the exploits of first-time qualifiers, some of which many people might previously have struggled to locate on the map. Standout moments have already included Curaçao’s goal-keeping heroics in earning a draw against Ecuador and Cabo Verde’s upset by pegging back reigning champions Spain.

But one story has largely gone under the radar: the participation of Uzbekistan. According to some pundits, Uzbekistan should have collapsed into violent chaos years ago. Instead, it has become the first central Asian state to play on football’s grandest stage. Behind this lies a fascinating tale of geopolitics and peace.

In the 1990s, overwrought geopolitical analysis portrayed the region as dangerous and in desperate need of western salvation. This was particularly true of the US. In 1997, Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security advisor to Jimmy Carter and an éminence grise of the US foreign policy establishment, dubbed central Asia “the Eurasian Balkans” on what he called the “grand chessboard” of great-power competition.

At the intersection of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan sits the Ferghana Valley. With its complex patchwork of borders, enclaves and ethnic minorities, it became the focal point of this discourse of danger. A 1999 policy report written by American academics warned that, without US help, the valley could become “a breeding ground of terrorism” and “a hotbed of religious and political........

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