Protests erupted in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, in October 2020 following disputed parliamentary elections. Only four political parties out of 16 had passed the threshold for entry into parliament. Three of these had close ties to the country’s then-president, Sooronbay Jeenbekov.

Kyrgyzstan’s powerful neighbour, China, responded to the unrest with restraint – but in a way that implied democracy can cause political upheaval. Hua Chunying, spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said: “China sincerely hopes that all parties in Kyrgyzstan can resolve the issue according to law through dialogue and consultation, and push for stability as soon as possible”.

China adopted a different tone when Kazakhstan’s government responded violently to civil unrest in early 2022. It endorsed the Kazakh president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, repeating his claims that “terrorists trained abroad” were responsible for the unrest. Beijing praised Tokayev’s firm response, which left hundreds of people dead.

Why did China, confronted with two uprisings in neighbouring countries, react cautiously in one case and assertively in the other? As my recently published research shows, the answer points to a broader........

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