Climate models are now confidently projecting the world will experience a very strong El Niño weather event this year. For Australia, this Pacific Ocean phenomenon means we are likely to see hotter and drier conditions for the rest of 2026 and into 2027.

While it’s only one of several factors influencing our weather, an El Niño event increases the likelihood of drought in eastern and southern Australia. This can directly impact local economies, with social ripple effects across affected communities.

El Niño can also affect other Australians indirectly through its impacts on food production and prices. However, news headlines warning of possible food shortages or soaring prices often do not reflect real, observable changes.

Read more: The weather bureau has just declared an El Niño. What could this mean for Australia?

Communities exposed to the weather

Across eastern Australia, weather-dependent agricultural regions are typically affected first and foremost when an El Niño hits. Drought and water shortages have a direct impact on livelihoods.

This year, farmers in parts of Victoria, southern New South Wales and South Australia have actually had unusually wet and warm conditions, supporting a strong start to the season for many crops.

That’s no guarantee there won’t be drought conditions later. And in some other areas, including in parts of northern NSW and southern Queensland, dry conditions........

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