Iran and the United States are about to sign a peace deal that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil.

Oil prices reacted quickly to the announcement of the tentative deal, dropping from highs that had pushed gasoline prices toward record levels in North America.

The global supply chain, however, will take the better part of a year to recover, and the relief at the pumps may prove more gradual than the relief in oil markets.

The strait’s closure began on Feb. 28 after the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran. Tehran responded by effectively shutting the strait to commercial traffic, attacking ships and laying sea mines.

Traffic through the passage fell from about 100 vessels per day to roughly six at the height of the blockade, and more than 1,500 vessels were left waiting to pass through at one point. That backlog has caused a months-long global energy crisis.

Supply chains operate on a different timeline than politics. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd estimates it will take their firm at least six weeks to regain a fully normal network, assuming vessels can leave the Persian Gulf fairly soon after reopening.

But that estimate may be too optimistic, since several of the prerequisites for normal traffic still aren’t in place and different accounts put different timelines on how long it will take for the backlog to clear and traffic to return to pre-conflict levels.

Insurance and mines slow the restart

The Strait........

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