Floods, droughts and heatwaves continue to dominate headlines around the world and in Australia.

In the past few days, hundreds of bushfires have ignited in south-east Australia during an extreme heatwave. And communities in north Queensland have been lashed by heavy rain and flash flooding from ex-tropical Cyclone Koji. This is the seventh cyclone so far this season.

Behind these disasters is a deeper and less visible influence: ongoing shifts in the global water cycle. This is the process by which water evaporates, falls as rain and snow, and ultimately evaporates again. Our latest report shows how changes in rainfall, air temperature and humidity combined to amplify water-related disasters across the world in 2025.

These floods and fires are not simply isolated weather extremes, but signs of a water cycle that is being increasingly destabilised by global warming.

The global water cycle connects the atmosphere, land, oceans and ice. Water evaporates from the land and seas, falling as rain and snow. This feeds glaciers, rivers, lakes and groundwater and finally either evaporates again or flows to the ocean. This cycle is driven by the energy from the sun. And as the planet warms, it is becoming more powerful and more erratic.

Global temperatures over land in 2025 were only slightly lower than a record-breaking year in 2024. This makes the last three years the hottest on record, in line with rapid global warming.

Higher temperatures accelerate evaporation from soil, vegetation and inland waters, producing dry........

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