China’s economy is slowing, but it’s holding up better than expected in the face of Donald Trump’s trade war.

Even as China’s “Fourth Plenum” gathering of the most senior members of the Communist Party got underway on Monday to rubber-stamp Xi Jinping’s next five-year economic plan, the latest economic data shows Asia’s biggest economy grew 4.8 per cent in the third quarter, compared to the same period last year.

While that represents a slowdown from the 5.2 per cent growth rate in the June quarter, it keeps the economy on track to meet Beijing’s “around 5 per cent” targeted growth for this year. It’s also a little better than most external forecasters had expected.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to double down on his long-term ambition of global domination of advanced manufacturing.Credit: AP

Beneath the headline numbers, however, the detail highlights the unbalanced nature of China’s growth, with the divergence between the domestic economy and a boom in exports – despite Trump’s tariffs – stark. The domestic economy is decelerating even as exports are surging.

Last week’s trade data showed that China’s exports were up 8.3 per cent last month, relative to September last year, despite a 27 per cent slump in exports to the US. Monday’s data showed a 6.5 per cent (year-on-year) increase in industrial production, which is clearly linked to that boom in exports.

The picture of the domestic economy, however, is quite different.

Even though Trump struck a deal with Anthony Albanese to get access to Australia’s plentiful reserves of rare earths, it will take many years before the US can shed its dependence on China’s rare earths and rare earth magnets.

Fixed asset investment – investment in infrastructure, factories and real estate – actually contracted 0.5 per cent, falling for the first time since the pandemic.

Consumption has slowed to 3 per cent growth as the impact of the trade-in policies – subsidies to boost retail spending – appears to be fading. September was the fourth successive month of........

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