There is a counterfactual fantasy, not much indulged but not dismissed entirely, in which Prime Minister Anthony Albanese went to his second election in the brief “vibe shift” between Donald Trump’s triumphant return to the US presidency in 2024 and his clumsy tariff whammy in 2025. Perhaps, if the Australian election had taken place before “Liberation Day” the outcome would have been different for Peter Dutton. More likely, it would not.

Germans rally in Berlin calling for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to be banned. Credit: Getty Images

In any case, such imaginings are of no use to the Coalition. It’s as helpful to them as the reverse counterfactual is to the Social Democrats I spoke to in Germany this week.

Germany held its election in February. The incumbent government was led by a chancellor from the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the German analogue of the Labor Party. Perhaps if the election had come after Trump’s global tariff day, the SPD might also have retained power. But as the German election was set for February, only 20 per cent of German voters chose the SPD. The Social Democrats now have a lower primary vote than the Alternative for Germany (AfD), an economically conservative-turned-far-right party that has made immigration control its primary platform.

If the Albanese government cared to take the German experience as a cautionary tale – a possible but avoidable future – it could reflect that what occurred there is just part of a pattern rolling through the Western world. These trends come to Australia late and slowly. But they do seem to come eventually.

US Vice President J.D.........

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