On December 18, 2024, the U.S. government imposed sanctions on four Pakistani entities over their involvement in the alleged development of long-range missiles, also known as Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, capable of traveling more than 5,500 km. The banned entities include National Development Complex (NDC), a state enterprise, located in Islamabad. Also listed were three private entities: Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International, and Rockside Enterprise, all based in Karachi, that presumably support the NDC by supplying equipment for missile development. These sanctions have led to a debate over Pakistan’s growing strategic capabilities and their implications.

From the U.S. perspective, a long-range missile’s capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia (including the United States) is concerning. Jon Finer, former Deputy National Security Advisor, expressed this concern when he accused Pakistan of developing sophisticated technology including larger rocket motors. However, this threat is currently latent, and the U.S. government has itself acknowledged that Pakistan’s capability to target the United States is still at least several years off.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Foreign Office (MoFA) termed Washington’s decision to sanction Pakistan’s entities “unfortunate and biased.” It also emphasized that Pakistan’s strategic capabilities were for defending its sovereignty and maintaining stability in South Asia. Nevertheless, MoFA neither confirmed nor denied that the country was developing long-range missiles. Following Finer’s accusations, Pakistan termed the U.S. allegations  “unfounded” and “devoid of rationality.”      

Pakistan’s missile program is a response to Indian developments and not targeted at the United States. Moreover, these sanctions could complicate ties and drive Islamabad further toward China.

These U.S sanctions and allegations against a major non-NATO ally do not bode well for the overall relationship. In the short term, the sanctions freeze any U.S. assets owned by the accused entities and prohibit U.S. individuals from engaging in transactions with them. However, the actions of the U.S. government can result in reputational damage to both the accused entities and any businesses that work with them, resulting in the withdrawal of other businesses’ support and cooperation. The sanctions raise several fundamental questions about the reasons for their imposition, the implications they may carry, and Washington’s evolving approach to the region, especially with the new Trump........

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