On February 12, Bangladesh held elections for the first time since the ouster of longtime leader Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. Voters delivered a supermajority in parliament to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and approved a referendum on the proposed July Charter reforms. South Asian Voices spoke with Dr. Muhib Rahman on February 18 to unpack the election results and survey the path forward for the embattled democracy. Rahman is a Perry World House Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania where he works on the “Borders and Boundaries Project.” His broader research agenda sits at the intersection of international security, emerging technologies, and the politics of the Global South.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) received nearly 50 percent of all votes cast and won a supermajority in the Jatiya Sangsad (JS). What contributed to the party’s success and how did this result compare with expectations heading into the election?

The BNP is one of the two key political parties in Bangladesh, with a large popular base since its establishment by former President Ziaur Rahman. Given that the Awami League (AL) did not participate, following its government’s widespread repression for about 15 years, and that the BNP has been on the ground all throughout trying to act as the de facto opposition, I think the result was quite expected.

In the run-up to the election, there was some hype that Jamaat-e-Islami (Jamaat), along with the National Citizen Party (NCP), the party born out of the July Revolution, would do much better than they eventually did. Some polls suggested the BNP would win a landslide majority, while others said the election would be a very close contest between the BNP and the Jamaat-led alliance.

Part of the reason the BNP was successful, I think, was that its election manifesto and campaigns resonated with the expectations of the population across the social spectrum. For instance, they have come up with the idea of a “Family Card” to deliver economic benefits to low-income families, which I think people, especially in rural areas, could connect with. Jamaat, on the other hand, was able to attract voters by campaigning against corruption and promising good governance and efficient policies, but this appeal was more to specific segments, such as the youth and the urban middle class.

The competition may have looked like a pretty close call because people were paying attention to social media, and the segment of society engaging there was urban, educated youth sharing their opinions on politics. But that does not represent the entire picture of the nation. So, Jamaat did well at attracting urban, educated people and the young voters, but overall, people were more aligned with the BNP.

In addition, the death of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, the mother of Tarique Rahman, generated a period of sympathy because she was a leader who commanded respect across the political spectrum.

Jamaat received the second highest share of votes (nearly 32 percent) and will lead the opposition coalition. The party leadership has accepted the outcome but called for investigations into alleged irregularities in at least 32 seats. How will these allegations shape the post-election environment?

As I noted, Jamaat had this hype in the run-up to the election, and the party was expecting to perform much better than it did. So, these allegations came about partly because of the gap between expectations and results. Jamaat believed there were some irregularities, particularly in the vote-counting stage. Initially, they wanted to respond with some form of demonstration, but over time, that has stabilized, and they have accepted the outcome.

Even if Jamaat and the NCP are not happy with what happened in the election, I think they are expected to act more like an opposition that helps the government maintain stability. There are many positive developments on the BNP side as well, such as Tarique Rahman visiting the residences of the Jamaat leader and the leader of the NCP. So, I think there is an effort on all sides to build a broader coalition to govern the country constructively, rather than creating some sort of political friction. I believe any problems that may arise in the future will not be related to those allegations, and it will not be a big issue down the road.

However, the problem may arise regarding the referendum. The elected members of the BNP were supposed to take an oath as both Members of Parliament and Members of the Constitution Reform Council, but they did not. By contrast, Jamaat did take the oath for both. It will create challenges if the BNP tries to bypass the reform agenda approved by the referendum, as Jamaat and the NCP will push that agenda forward in parliament.

We have yet to see how that pans out, because I think the BNP is now testing how everyone reacts to their initial postures and how much they........

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