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On paper, Donald Trump’s war in Iran seems like it could be close to over. The U.S. has paused its attacks and Iranian strikes on commercial ships have gotten more infrequent. But less fighting doesn’t necessarily mean we’re getting closer to peace. Beneath the surface, the conditions are brewing for a prolonged conflict—and possibly an even more intense one.

Wait, back up: Why did the fighting taper off?

Good question. Last month, after Trump’s fragile ceasefire collapsed, the U.S. launched 13 straight days of missile strikes and bombing runs against Iran. Iran, in turn, used missiles and drones to attack U.S. military bases around the region. But in August, the guns have largely gone silent. Trump abruptly called off more strikes a couple of weeks ago, citing progress in peace talks. The real reason for the pause may be that the U.S. is reportedly running dangerously low on the interceptors it uses to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones, interceptors it also needs elsewhere (including to help Ukraine against Russia). Either way, Iranian attacks—which the country’s officials have characterized as “retaliatory operations”—have mostly abated since Trump hit pause, leaving the war in a state of limbo.

But the war isn’t over, right? So if not with drones and missiles, how are the two sides fighting? 

At least for now, a hot war has morphed into an economic and political war of attrition. Having failed to beat Iran into submission with bombs, Trump is banking on economic pressure to bring it to heel. The U.S. has yanked away the waivers it gave Iran to sell oil during the ceasefire, reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports, and........

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